Does iron ore spot price come 7 years head fall to have egg under Chao Zhi of futures price Fu now? The financial seismic sea wave of wall street is in step by step economy of substance of press hard on, from international heavy goods steep fall see one spot. International oil price has dropped split 70 dollars, before this arrogant all the time gas fools fooled iron ore price eventually fall city. Show according to data, spot price of entrance iron ore drops achieved 40% , mine of the India at the beginning of September (63.5%) C.I.F is 136-137 dollar / ton, the middle ten days of a month dropped in October to 85 dollars / ton the following, than March 2008 apogee drops of nearly 60% . Come 7 years spot price of international iron ore first under level of long-term contract price (long-term contract free on board is mine of 62% Australia pink 89 dollars / ton) . The personage inside course of study discloses, the shipping market of steely manufacturer and iron ore market are the relation that mutual influence restricts each other. At present the iron ore on the market is contract of merchandise on hand and long-term agreement contract for part of one's job. Of freight of near future sea drop bring about futures to drop to the cost of harbor, indirect ground is caused spot price drops and slow-moving. Marine cost is gotten drop iron ore reporter learns, the main motive force that leads iron ore this slump in price still is the sea freight that drop. October, brazil and Australia all issue defeat considerably to sea freight of China. Among them, brazil is achieved to extent of fall after a rise of Chinese sea freight 47.18% , australia is achieved to extent of fall after a rise of Chinese sea freight 35% . Dog data shows, since October, brazil carries to Chinese sea cost already from September 30 the 33.517 dollars when closing quotation / ton fall to the 17.888 dollars October 14 / ton. And the sea freight that Australia reachs China also the 11.6 dollars from September 30 / ton fall to 7.536 dollars / ton. Begin from October 9, everyday fall be in 2 dollars above. Because drop of marine cost considerably, brazil is long assist the price of mine has appeared to hang with price of mine of domestic merchandise on hand. Analytic personage expresses, as a result of domestic steelworks reduction of output, to iron ore slow down in demand, brazil / Australia drops considerably to marine cost of China. And river valley of Brazilian fresh water carries valence to the requirement did not get Chinese steelworks is approbated and stop to deliver goods, this also quickened Brazil to reach China of marine cost drop. The situation that market of iron ore of four quarters China begged for be more than 2008 will be more apparent, must admit iron ore price still has continue small possibility. And since 2003, international iron ore published the quotation 2009 first be expected to fall, also will make four quarters concerned to the market of international iron ore at the beginning of 2009 2008 delicate, mine company will be driven possibly before overt 2009 price drops, increase sale. Price of iron ore of benefit good China negotiates as 2009 money year the drawing near that iron ore negotiates, as a result of marine cost drop considerably, spot price and long assist the price keeps balance even under long assist the price, this negotiates to price of Chinese iron ore is the news with a good profit. Once immediate and marine cost falls to long-term and balanced level, c.I.F of long-term agreement iron ore will drop considerably, will pull C.I.F of mine of low India merchandise on hand thereby, more advantageous condition is created in negotiation of iron ore price for steely course of study. In recent years Australia needs and need develop, force develop asks to need to just offer marine cost compensation, in order to wipe the difference of smooth Brazil mine and Australian mine FOB. Reach mine price agreement in fresh water river valley especially later, need and need develop, force develop hopes to carry more benefit is gotten on cost compensation problem in the sea more. Can say aggravate of " of problem of " sea freight in square negotiation is difficult.
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